French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

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French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby TheBrunswickian » 20th January, 2017, 8:33 am

The eyes of the world are turning to France as she gears up for the 2017 Presidential election. Following a tumultuous term, incumbent President Francois Hollande has confirmed he will not seek re-election. His Prime Minister, Manuel Valls resigned in order to campaign for the Socialist Party nomination. Last year, Francois Fillon defeated former Prime Minister Alain Juppe and former President Nicolas Sarkozy for the nomination of The Republicans. National Front's Marine le Pen is widely seen as a front runner, having come 3rd in the 2012 election, narrowly missing out on the second round of voting.

Given recent shock victories for Brexit and Trump, fears that anti-establishment, right-wing populist sentiments will take hold in France, giving way to Marine le Pen to charge to victory. Furthermore the collapse of support for the Socialist Party to two separate left-wing candidates may cause for no left-wing alternative to le Pen in the second round. Should le Pen be victorious, the European Union would suffer a major blow to its credibility. Her victory may also embolden right-wing parties on the march across Europe, especially in Germany.

The Socialist Party primary first round occurs in just a few days on 22 January, with the run-off occurring on 29 January. Manuel Valls holds the lead, with 37% support in a poll taken last week. His closest rival, Benoit Hamon trails on 28%. However, other polls place them neck and neck.

The first round of the election will take place on 23 April, with the second round scheduled to take place on 7 May.

In an Ipsos poll published last week, the opinion polling is as follows:

Marine le Pen (National Front): 25%
Francois Fillon (Republicans): 23%
Emmanuel Macron (Forward): 17%
Jean-Luc Melenchon (Left Front): 14%
Manuel Valls (Socialists): 9%
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Pity » 20th January, 2017, 8:36 am

I don't know enough about politics in France to support anyone, but I'll just say I'm not upset Marine Le Pen is in the lead.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby JonathanT88 » 20th January, 2017, 8:44 am

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the president France needs in spite of his annoyingly patriotic interpretation of the French Revolution.

I just wish the left would unite behind the Front de Gauche, reconciling with the ideological track they've been derailed from.

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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Pity » 20th January, 2017, 9:06 am

I did the iSideWith test for France. Idk the accuracy, but here:

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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Jacketh » 20th January, 2017, 9:09 am

Le Pen > Fillon.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby JonathanT88 » 20th January, 2017, 9:10 am

Pity wrote:I did the iSideWith test for France. Idk the accuracy, but here:

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OMG PITY YOU'RE A COMMUNIST TOO!!! YASSSSS!!! Can you please start being more overtly left-wing, because I'm tiring of the right-wing facade.

For reference:

[Reveal] Spoiler: FDG 2012 Platform
Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the FG's platform in the 2012 presidential election was broken up into nine overarching 'themes'.[28]

"Sharing the wealth and abolishing social insecurity" – banning market-based layoffs (licenciements boursiers) for companies which make profits, raise the minimum wage (SMIC) to €1,700, setting a maximum wage differential of 1 to 20 in all businesses, right to retirement with a full pension at 60, defending public services, stopping public sector spending cuts (RGPP), setting a maximum wage at €360,000, instituting a 35-hour workweek.

"Reclaiming power from banks and financial markets" – changing the European Central Bank's policy to favour job creation and public services, controlling financial speculation, raising the capital gains tax and the solidarity tax on wealth (ISF), abolishing fiscal loopholes and previleges, taxing corporations' financial revenues, creating a 'public financial pole' to reorient credit towards jobs, innovation and sustainable development.

"Ecological planning" – Nationalizing Électricité de France, Gaz de France and Areva to create a publicly owned energy sector, creating a national public water service, a new transportation policy promoting public transportation and taxing the transportation of non-vital merchandise.

"Producing differently" – a new model of development and economic growth which respects the environment and individuals, redefining industrial priorities, new rights for employees, creating a Gross National Happiness indicator.

"The Republic, for real" – Reaffirming the 1905 French law on the Separation of the Churches and the State, creating a ministry for women and equality, repealing the HADOPI law, regularizing illegal immigrants, opposition to the golden rule of fiscal balance, creating jobs in the public sector.

"Convene a constituent assembly for the Sixth Republic" – convening a constituent assembly, repealing the 2010 local and regional government reform, proportional representation in all elections, reducing presidential powers and strengthening parliamentary powers, guaranteeing judicial and press freedom.

"Repealing the Lisbon Treaty and creating another Europe" – repealing the Treaty of Lisbon, opposition to the European Fiscal Compact, proposing and adopting a new European treaty which would 'prioritize social progress and democracy', reforming the statutes of the European Central Bank.

"To change the course of globalization" – withdrawing French troops from the war in Afghanistan, French withdrawal from NATO, recognizing the independence of a Palestinian state within 1967 borders, creation of a Tobin tax to finance international development and cooperation, debt forgiveness for low-income countries.

"Prioritizing human emancipation" – creating jobs in public education, spending 1% of GDP on arts and culture, doubling investment in research.

The FG also supports same-sex marriage, same-sex adoption, voting rights for resident foreigners, euthanasia, and constitutional recognition of a woman's right to have an abortion.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Pity » 20th January, 2017, 9:14 am

@Jon

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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby JonathanT88 » 20th January, 2017, 9:19 am

Pity wrote:@Jon

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So Pity, how exactly would you seize the means of production?

This is the first time we've been able to unite behind a party, and if that isn't a cause for celebration then I don't know what is.

[Reveal] Spoiler: My results
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Pity » 20th January, 2017, 10:44 am

I only matched the Left Front 52% :weep:
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby TheBrunswickian » 20th January, 2017, 4:46 pm

Jacketh wrote:Le Pen > Fillon.

Macron >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> everyone
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Dessy » 20th January, 2017, 6:28 pm

I got $50 on Le Penn. I await Jack's grand prediction before I bet anymore.


Also results:
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Why are there 6 left-ish parties? And why are the icon looking like something high school made in design classes?
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby JonathanT88 » 20th January, 2017, 6:50 pm

TheBrunswickian wrote:
Jacketh wrote:Le Pen > Fillon.

Macron >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> everyone


Because we can pretend economic liberalism isn't damaging if the propagator is young, attractive, and socially progressive.

Oh, and I'm pretty sure that isidewith is flawed. It asks absolutely no questions which could determine your support for the economic ideas of the FG or Communist Party, so it's not really representative. I guess my dreams of a Bolshevik Pity are just that.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Pity » 20th January, 2017, 8:20 pm

Jon, if it makes you feel better, we can start an anti-government commune in the middle of a forest where we share all of our resources: chickens, wheat, penises, lumber, and medicine. :gay:
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby JonathanT88 » 20th January, 2017, 8:54 pm

Pity wrote:Jon, if it makes you feel better, we can start an anti-government commune in the middle of a forest where we share all of our resources: chickens, wheat, penises, lumber, and medicine. :gay:


I don't know Pity, if we're going to educate the lumpenproletariat and purge the bourgeois class, I think we need to attack contemporary society in its entirety through revolution, rather than simply excluding the more radical individuals and allowing the oppression to continue.

Then again, I'm all for chicken, dicks and forest communes.

Let me get back to you on that one. :shifty:
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Ebsy » 20th January, 2017, 9:16 pm

At least Poison Dwarf lost the Les Republicains primary.

Le Pen has about 0% chance of winning the runoff, even against Fillon. Enough leftists will turn out and support him. Won't even be close.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby TheBrunswickian » 20th January, 2017, 10:04 pm

Ebsy wrote:At least Poison Dwarf lost the Les Republicains primary.

Le Pen has about 0% chance of winning the runoff, even against Fillon. Enough leftists will turn out and support him. Won't even be close.

True. Leftists will support Fillon because he truly would be the lesser of two evils.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby TheBrunswickian » 20th January, 2017, 10:09 pm

The problem for the left in France, is that it's vote will be split across three candidates. Macron, Melenchon and likely Valls. I prefer Macron of the three, and he is gaining ground - sitting in third place behind the right wing candidates. If he can build momentum, he may be able to drain support from the Socialist who are weak, and Melenchon who is often passed over despite polling at 14%. Macron has a chance to reach the run offs, but I won't bet on it yet
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Ebsy » 20th January, 2017, 10:52 pm

TheBrunswickian wrote:
Ebsy wrote:At least Poison Dwarf lost the Les Republicains primary.

Le Pen has about 0% chance of winning the runoff, even against Fillon. Enough leftists will turn out and support him. Won't even be close.

True. Leftists will support Fillon because he truly would be the lesser of two evils.

I don't really even think it is a lesser of two evils issue, more of a widespread consensus among 2/3 of the French that Front National cannot be allowed into government. Every 2 way runoff matchup between Le Pen and any of the other candidates will end with Le Pen losing. The polling isn't even close, and when I mean not close, I mean that Fillon or Valls or Macron is leading by 20-30 points. There is no coming back from that.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Jacketh » 21st January, 2017, 4:41 am

TheBrunswickian wrote:
Ebsy wrote:

Le Pen has about 0% chance of winning the runoff, even against Fillon. Enough leftists will turn out and support him. Won't even be close.

True. Leftists will support Fillon because he truly would be the lesser of two evils.


You two think French lefties will willingly to go the voting booths and vote someone dubbed the French Thatcher, wanting to rage war on their Unions? French enjoy their unions and their right to a good ol' strike. They value their social security. Sure, leftists won't agree with Le Pen's narrative on immigration, but lately she has been softening her stance on the EU.

I genuinely would consider voting Le Pen over Fillon. The problem Le Pen has is the perception of her is now associated with Trump and Farage. And, if that is true, then Fillon is Ted Cruz.

If she can attack him from an economic angle and he keeps spouting how he's France's Thatcher, I really don't see many people in a country that loves their Unions and protection turning out for him. I genuinely think its wrong to assume he's a lot more moderate than she is. Perhaps socially, but economically? Nah. Le Pen is actually quite left-wing economically.

Fillon will probably become President, but the polls will narrow and it'll be closer than people expect I reckon. I defo don't think leftists in France will willing be pulling up to voting booths to sign their workers rights and unions away by voting Fillon though. There is nearly five months to go - when people realise what Fillon's actual intentions are, particularly economically, watch them polls change.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Jacketh » 21st January, 2017, 4:44 am

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