French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby FirePhantom » 8th May, 2017, 6:31 am

Lightbringer wrote:With a semi-decent opposition, far right lost three times in a row in Europe, with all three being landslides. Austria > Netherlands > France.

Not sure how you can consider Geert Wilders' PVV becoming the second largest party in the Tweede Kamer a landslide loss…
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby JonathanT88 » 8th May, 2017, 6:46 am

FirePhantom wrote:
Lightbringer wrote:With a semi-decent opposition, far right lost three times in a row in Europe, with all three being landslides. Austria > Netherlands > France.

Not sure how you can consider Geert Wilders' PVV becoming the second largest party in the Tweede Kamer a landslide loss…


Nor should the left and centre become complacent just because they've defeated Marine Le Pen this time. To see 34% of the electorate so alienated and paranoid about globalism/immigration does not bode well for politics in the coming years, especially when you consider that in the first round 20% of the vote went to Mélenchon (whose voters expressed similar disillusionment). France may have opted for a neoliberal globalist this time, but they did so in spite of society's fractiousness, not because long-term problems have gone away. The radical right are not dead just because they've lost a few elections and I'd go as far as to consider this a victory for Marine Le Pen: defeating both of the established parties and getting a place in the second round is a colossal achievement.

Moreover, Macron will find it difficult to govern due to inconsistency of his parliamentary support, and his reforms are unlikely to assuage any of society's fundamental problems (I could rant for ages about how free-market capitalism is an unstable, broken system, and the need for profound economic reform). I wouldn't be surprised if his support disintegrated as his government proved ineffective, and in that situation I think the glorious wishy-washy centrist future many of you crave will be very much called into question. :P
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Jacketh » 8th May, 2017, 6:49 am

Lightbringer wrote:
Jacketh wrote:I can't with some people calling Macron a socialist though. Like, really?


He is going to get help from both the socialists and the republicans, because his party doesn't have parliament presence.

While he was a socialist, he isn't one now. Its easy to prove this. Point out the tax cuts for the rich, deregulations, reducing worker rights etc... These are not socialists policies, on the contrary.


Even if he was apart of the Socialist Party, he still isn't a small s socialist. He's not even a democratic socialist or anywhere close to it. Much like the Labour Party in the UK under Blair, 'socialist' parties have been hijacked by third-way, "centre-left/centre" figures, who are all about privatisation and encouraging enterprise (read: being in the pocket of big corps). There is nothing socialist about Hollande.

As for Macron, it is unbelievable and just shows a complete lack of understanding of ideologies and economics if someone (mainly certain Americans who supported Trump) see Macron's main pledges below as socialism:

-Mass deregulation and privatisation of the French economy. In particular, the pharmaceutical industry where French citizens will now be able to purchase over the counter.
-Encouragement of free trade and globalism, in particular with the EU but not exclusively.
-An investment of €50billion into supply-side policies (a typically neoliberal way of allowing for monetarist consumption).
-Greater security measures in line with both NATO and the EU.
-A projected public spending saving of €60billion.
-A €10billion cut on benefits whilst reducing the jobless rate to 7%.
-Modernisation of the public services and greater efficiency of healthcare.
-Cuts to local authority spending.
-A cut on corporate tax.
-Greater room for companies to negotiate real work hours.
-Overhauling the retirement and pension schemes into one that benefits both the private and public sector workers.
-10,000 additional police officers and 15,000 additional prison spaces.
-Halving the number of students at primary school in poorer areas.

It is anything but.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Lightbringer » 8th May, 2017, 6:50 am

FirePhantom wrote:
Lightbringer wrote:With a semi-decent opposition, far right lost three times in a row in Europe, with all three being landslides. Austria > Netherlands > France.

Not sure how you can consider Geert Wilders' PVV becoming the second largest party in the Tweede Kamer a landslide loss…


"The 2nd largest party" is a bit misleading without considering the details. Mark Rutte got almost double the amount of votes Wilders did. This alone is significant. Not to mention two left parties got 2% and 3% less votes than PVV, becoming the 3rd and 4th largest parties respectively. So while it still makes PVV the second largest, these are pretty important points to consider. Also these left parties are also pro-EU, meaning barring the 21% of voters who voted for PVV, almost 80% of Dutch people voted for pro-EU parties.

So PVV has significant distance with first place and two rivals neck and neck with it. Its a very weak and unstable position to be in.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby FirePhantom » 8th May, 2017, 9:57 am

Lightbringer wrote:
FirePhantom wrote:
Lightbringer wrote:With a semi-decent opposition, far right lost three times in a row in Europe, with all three being landslides. Austria > Netherlands > France.

Not sure how you can consider Geert Wilders' PVV becoming the second largest party in the Tweede Kamer a landslide loss…

"The 2nd largest party" is a bit misleading without considering the details. Mark Rutte got almost double the amount of votes Wilders did. This alone is significant. Not to mention two left parties got 2% and 3% less votes than PVV, becoming the 3rd and 4th largest parties respectively. So while it still makes PVV the second largest, these are pretty important points to consider. Also these left parties are also pro-EU, meaning barring the 21% of voters who voted for PVV, almost 80% of Dutch people voted for pro-EU parties.

So PVV has significant distance with first place and two rivals neck and neck with it. Its a very weak and unstable position to be in.

"Landslide" is even more misleading. ;)

33 is not "almost double" 20. It's less than ⅔ of double.

A 33% increase in seats is simply not a landslide loss. Stop trying to justify your rose-tinted outlook.

There's a reason why "swing" is a more important metric in multi-party/proportional legislative systems, because otherwise you could always add up the opposing parties' shares, count them as votes "against" a particular party, and then claim that party lost.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Lightbringer » 8th May, 2017, 12:03 pm

FirePhantom wrote:
Lightbringer wrote:
FirePhantom wrote:
Lightbringer wrote:With a semi-decent opposition, far right lost three times in a row in Europe, with all three being landslides. Austria > Netherlands > France.

Not sure how you can consider Geert Wilders' PVV becoming the second largest party in the Tweede Kamer a landslide loss…

"The 2nd largest party" is a bit misleading without considering the details. Mark Rutte got almost double the amount of votes Wilders did. This alone is significant. Not to mention two left parties got 2% and 3% less votes than PVV, becoming the 3rd and 4th largest parties respectively. So while it still makes PVV the second largest, these are pretty important points to consider. Also these left parties are also pro-EU, meaning barring the 21% of voters who voted for PVV, almost 80% of Dutch people voted for pro-EU parties.

So PVV has significant distance with first place and two rivals neck and neck with it. Its a very weak and unstable position to be in.

"Landslide" is even more misleading. ;)

33 is not "almost double" 20. It's less than ⅔ of double.

A 33% increase in seats is simply not a landslide loss. Stop trying to justify your rose-tinted outlook.

There's a reason why "swing" is a more important metric in multi-party/proportional legislative systems, because otherwise you could always add up the opposing parties' shares, count them as votes "against" a particular party, and then claim that party lost.


The point here are political trends. They happen all the time. Thatcher, Reagan and Kohl we are all elected in the same time, the world swung right and it became a trend. Netherlands resisted it back then like it did now. When the right trend is happening over the world, of course the far right is going to win bigger than usual, but it was defeated by a center-right party. This sends a very big message, since 60% of the country's right wing decided Wilders was too extreme for them.

Out of all 4 main parties, three of them were pro-EU, and if given the choice between Rutte and Wilders, they two other would almost always choose Rutte. In coalition systems, reaching majority is not needed, so people vote for their party more freely than most. What remains as a fact is 80% of Dutch voters choosing a pro-EU party over anti-EU ones. Wilders can never win as long as he holds anti-EU policies.

Take a look at this: (VVD almost got the double amount PVV did. 34, 20 is close to 30, 15.)

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CDA and D66 are left wing parties who almost won as much seats as PVV and can easily overthrow him in the next election provided VVD doesn't get majority again in next election. Its been a long time since Netherlands had a left party in power and people are pretty much itching for it. This year was Wilders only real chance and he lost with quite bit of difference. He may have gotten quite a bit of seats compared to last election, but anti-EU policies did in fact lose with a landslide. All the analysis points to Wilders' main reason of defeat being his anti-EU policies. Netherlands will not accept anti-EU policies in any close future.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Anonymous Boy » 8th May, 2017, 12:29 pm

Lightbringer wrote:Image

CDA and D66 are left wing parties

I'm afraid I've got to correct you there. CDA is centre-right. D66 is generally centre-right on economic issues and centre-left on social issues.

Here's the CDA party leader in an interview:

Sybrand Buma, CDA leader wrote:Daarom is die vrijage van links ook zo gek. Zij willen een progressief kabinet dat het CDA mogelijk moet maken. Het CDA gaat géén progressief kabinet mogelijk maken. No way, dan kennen ze mij nog niet.

[...]

[Ik] ga geen linkse agenda uitvoeren.

"CDA isn't going to enable a progressive cabinet. No way" (emphasis his)
"I'm not going to implement a left-wing agenda."

He wants to make a right-wing cabinet with VVD, only including more left-wing parties if absolutely necessary in order to avoid including PVV. CDA is basically VVD-lite.

The (centre-)left parties in the chart are GroenLinks, SP, PvdA, ChristenUnie, PvdD and DENK.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby FirePhantom » 8th May, 2017, 12:45 pm

Lightbringer wrote:The point here are political trends. They happen all the time. Thatcher, Reagan and Kohl we are all elected in the same time, the world swung right and it became a trend. Netherlands resisted it back then like it did now. When the right trend is happening over the world, of course the far right is going to win bigger than usual, but it was defeated by a center-right party. This sends a very big message, since 60% of the country's right wing decided Wilders was too extreme for them.

Divvying up the Netherlands' parties and voters in to a "left" and "right" binary is ridiculous. Wilders and PVV are not economically right of centre (and neither is La Pen, for that matter), and even on a fair number of social issues (at least professed) Wilders can be quite liberal (his stance on gay rights, for example, at least insofar as he is publicly for them as a wedge against illiberal immigrants).

Lightbringer wrote:Out of all 4 main parties, three of them were pro-EU, and if given the choice between Rutte and Wilders, they two other would almost always choose Rutte. In coalition systems, reaching majority is not needed, so people vote for their party more freely than most. What remains as a fact is 80% of Dutch voters choosing a pro-EU party over anti-EU ones. Wilders can never win as long as he holds anti-EU policies.

Why are you conflating European Union stance and your binary political categorisation? Mélenchon isn't pro-EU yet he is very leftist, and there is a lot of evidence for anti-EU sentiment within the Corbyn wing of the UK Labour party.

Also, stop condescendingly explaining things like coalitions and the Dutch political spectrum. FYI: I'm married to a Dutch guy, and I've been following Dutch politics since you were 12. :tea:

Lightbringer wrote:Take a look at this: (VVD almost got the double amount PVV did. 34, 20 is close to 30, 15.)

That's some crazy mad rounding you're doing in your favour, lol.

Why don't you take a look at what I've already said:
FirePhantom wrote:33 is not "almost double" 20. It's less than ⅔ of double.

…and lrn2math.

Lightbringer wrote:CDA and D66 are left wing parties who almost won as much seats as PVV and can easily overthrow him in the next election provided VVD doesn't get majority again in next election. Its been a long time since Netherlands had a left party in power and people are pretty much itching for it. This year was Wilders only real chance and he lost with quite bit of difference. He may have gotten quite a bit of seats compared to last election, but anti-EU policies did in fact lose with a landslide. All the analysis points to Wilders' main reason of defeat being his anti-EU policies. Netherlands will not accept anti-EU policies in any close future.

Again with the conflating of EU stance and general political leaning. Politicians are not static — certainly not self-serving power-hungry ones like Wilders, who is surely hearing the same observations about the electorate as you are. Note that Le Pen has expressly indicated her intent to transform FN before the next election.


My broad point is that your tone of victory and inevitability leads to the kind of complacency that lost Hillary the White House and is continuing to lead all of these parties to underestimate and ignore these kinds of politicians, parties, and the significant chunk of the electorate that they hold sway over.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Lightbringer » 9th May, 2017, 6:36 pm

I'm all up for not getting complacent. But some celebration is deserved. There is no more election in which the far right can do anything this year.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Pity » 9th May, 2017, 6:42 pm

Lightbringer wrote:far right


tfw le pen is actually more to the left than macron. please learn what "far right" means ty
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Lightbringer » 9th May, 2017, 6:57 pm

Pity wrote:
Lightbringer wrote:far right


tfw le pen is actually more to the left than macron. please learn what "far right" means ty


Yeah I'm not letting internet professors educate me on political spectrum. By your logic there is no "left" in America, and there never has been. You have to keep context in mind. Le Pen is pretty much as extreme as French society allows her to be, and she is right wing. Just because she has some economical models that resembles left polices means nothing. In current political trends, economy is one of the least significant factors. First and foremost its nationalism versus unions and globalism. Then its immigration. Then its security, and while its related to immigration, its an independent issue. After these economy enters the scene.

Le pen is far right, she leads the far right party in France and her party has been far right when we were not alive. This is all based on events and context of France and its a established fact. There are official government documents labeling her and her party as a far right party. But we have 4chan and Reddit saying she is a leftist? What a dilemma, I don't know who to believe! :err:
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby JonathanT88 » 9th May, 2017, 6:58 pm

Pity wrote:
Lightbringer wrote:far right


tfw le pen is actually more to the left than macron. please learn what "far right" means ty


It's not as clean-cut as that. It depends if you view left/right as a scale which applies strictly to economic policy and whether or not you consider fierce nationalism/anti-immigrant policy 'right-wing.' There's no set definition of what 'left' and 'right' mean in practical terms, so I think trying to label either of them is kind of arbitrary and frequently detracts from their actual policies. The media's insistence on labelling Marine Le Pen far-right has led to too many unnecessary comparisons with other 'far-right' leaders, and a similar readiness to label Macron has caused people to misunderstand his perspectives on many things.

Simply put: stop enforcing your arbitrary definitions when there's no fixed way of looking at the left/right spectrum.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby TheBrunswickian » 17th May, 2017, 9:51 am

Macron has announced his Cabinet. Its politically balanced between the left, centre and the right. It has full gender parity. And there are many cases of meritocracy in the appointments; from an Olympian in Sport, to a doctor in Health.
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Re: French Presidential Election Discussion Thread

Unread postby Jacketh » 29th August, 2017, 9:03 pm

So this Macron guy, things, as expected, not going too swimingly? :tea:
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